Basking shark and Great white shark: Which species will survive global change in the next 100 years?

Autor(en)

Lucian Arrau, Jaime Villafaña, KE Buldrini, J. Campos-Medina, Pablo Oyanadel-Urbina, CA Sandoval, I. Leiva, Rubia Salgado, Y. Salgado, Jürgen Kriwet, Martín Chávez Hoffmeister, C. Lara, Marcelo Rivadeneira, D. Almendras

Abstrakt

The white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) is an apex predator inhabiting temperate seas and occasionally colder regions due to its endothermic capacity, which enables tolerance of lower temperatures. In contrast, the basking shark (Cetorhinus maximus) is a cosmopolitan epipelagic filter feeder occurring in cold to warm-temperate waters, as well as in deep waters below the thermocline in tropical and equatorial regions. Both species are large and play key roles in marine ecosystems, making them particularly vulnerable to climate change. This study models potential shifts in their geographic distribution over the next 100 years under climate change scenarios, using a species distribution model (SDM), based on a machinelearning algorithm that estimates occupancy probability from georeferenced records. The present study employs SDMs to predict where the species could potentially occur, based on the relationship between its known distribution and environmental characteristics. The model incorporates present and future surface-layer variables, including sea surface temperature, salinity, and primary productivity, without accounting for geographical barriers. Our findings indicate that the projected Area of Occupancy (AOO) for the white shark will decline by 35%, from 206,149,680 km² to 134,492,896 km² (AUC = 0.95), while the AOO of the basking shark may be reduced by nearly 100%, from 52,943,116 km² to just 1,864 km² (AUC = 0.94). These projections, which do not account for deep-water habitats, suggest that climate
change could drastically alter the distribution of both species, with particularly severe consequences for the basking shark, highlighting critical challenges for its conservation.

Organisation(en)

Institut für Paläontologie

Externe Organisation(en)

Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Universidad Austral de Chile, Museo Nacional de Historia Natural, Área de Paleontología, Santiago, Chile, Laboratorio de Paleobiología, Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas, Coquimbo, Chile, Laboratorio de Paleobiologfa, Centrode Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Aridas (CEAZA), Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas (CEAZA), das kollektiv, CIAHN Atacama, Universidad Católica del Norte, Universidad de La Serena, Proyecto Raya Águila, La Serena, Chile

Seiten

301-301

Anzahl der Seiten

1

Publikationsdatum

03-2025

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ÖFOS 2012

105118 Paläontologie, 106003 Biodiversitätsforschung

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 13 – Maßnahmen zum Klimaschutz, SDG 14 – Leben unter Wasser

Link zum Portal

https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/de/publications/41a6f1e4-1f2e-40c0-a6aa-33a0aa9374b3