Attributing the 2021 Juruá River Floods to Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts, and Adaptation in the Brazilian Amazon
- Autor(en)
- Renata Pacheco Quevedo, Alex Ovando, Bianca Nunes Calado, Gisleine Cunha-Zeri, Larissa Antunes da Silva, Queren-Hapuque Rodrigues de Luna, Janaína Cassiano dos Santos, Rafael Cesario Abreu, Wan Ting Katty Huang, Pedro Noronha, Henrique Leão, Luiz Felipe Goulart Fiscina, Rafaela Quintella Veiga, Débora Joana Dutra, Ylza Marluce Silva de Lima, Edvan de Meneses, Marcos Timóteo Rodrigues de Sousa, Marcos Massao Futai, Fraser C Lott, Sihan Li, Rafael Luiz, Sarah Sparrow, Liana Oighenstein Anderson
- Abstrakt
An extreme rainfall event caused historic floods in the western Brazilian Amazon in 2021, with significant socio-economic impacts. Since global climate change is amplifying the frequency and severity of such extreme events, our objective was to assess the extent to which this disaster can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. To achieve this goal, we used CHIRPS data for observational validation of the HadGEM3-A model, which was employed for the attribution analysis, assessed land cover areas directly affected by the floods, and analysed the socioeconomic impacts. The results revealed a positive precipitation anomaly, with rainfall from December to March reaching 48% above the average (1,329mm). This extreme event is 153% more likely to occur in the context of current human-induced climate change than in a natural scenario, with the return period reduced from 107 to 42 years. Furthermore, we found that the Attributable Risk Fraction (FAR) was 61%, i.e., the likelihood of such an event occurring can be attributed to anthropogenic influence on climate. Despite FAR limitations, we estimated that the proportion of climate change-attributable damages amounts to nearly US$10 million and affects over 43,000 individuals directly, likely underestimated. Our findings emphasise the urgent need for global climate action. Nationally, multi-sector data collection and climate integration into disaster risk reduction planning are essential for societal adaptation. Public management must include climate change in territorial planning, as environmental preservation and income redistribution can mitigate flood impacts, which tend to be increasingly frequent, as our findings show.
- Organisation(en)
- Institut für Geographie und Regionalforschung
- Externe Organisation(en)
- Universidade de São Paulo, CEMADEN, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Integrated Center for Geoprocessing and Environmental Monitoring of the Acre State Secretariat for the Environment, Rio Branco 69900160, Acre, Brazil., University of Oxford, Met Office, Defesa Civil do Estado do Acre, Rio Branco 69901097, Acre, Brazil, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Indiana University Bloomington, Secretaria de Estado da Saúde do Acre, Federal Institute of Science and Technology of Amazonas, São Gabriel da Cachoeira campus, Amazonas, Brazil, University of Sheffield
- Journal
- International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
- Band
- 125
- Anzahl der Seiten
- 21
- ISSN
- 2212-4209
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105530
- Publikationsdatum
- 2025
- Peer-reviewed
- Ja
- ÖFOS 2012
- 105205 Klimawandel, 207402 Fernerkundung, 105904 Umweltforschung, 105902 Naturgefahren
- Schlagwörter
- ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete
- Geology, Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology, Safety Research
- Sustainable Development Goals
- SDG 13 – Maßnahmen zum Klimaschutz, SDG 15 – Leben an Land
- Link zum Portal
- https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/de/publications/46633836-cd25-472b-815b-b0d746fa49ef