The reciprocal relation between rising longevity and temperature-related mortality risk in older people, Spain 1980-2018
- Autor(en)
- Simon J Lloyd, Erich Striessnig, José Manuel Aburto, Hicham Achebak, Shakoor Hajat, Raya Muttarak, Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Constanza Vielma, Joan Ballester
- Abstrakt
Temperature-related mortality mostly affects older people and is attributable to a combination of factors. We focussed on a key non-temperature factor - rising longevity - and aimed to quantify its reciprocal relation with temperature-related mortality risk in Spain over 1980-2018. We obtained average annual temperature-attributable deaths among people aged 65y+, by sex and age group, for different temperature ranges (extreme cold, moderate cold, moderate heat, and extreme heat), from a previous study. Combining this with population and mortality data as well as life table information, we used: (i) a counterfactual approach to assess the contribution of rising longevity to changes in the absolute risk of temperature-related mortality, and (ii) decomposition to assess the contribution of changes in temperature-related mortality to changes in longevity and its variation (lifespan inequality). Rising longevity led to considerable declines in the absolute risk of temperature-related mortality in females and males across the entire temperature range. For extreme heat, it accounted for about a 30% decrease in absolute risk (half of the total decrease over the study period). For moderate and extreme cold, it accounted for about a 20% fall in absolute risk (a quarter of the total fall). In the opposite direction, changing patterns of temperature-related deaths contributed to higher life expectancy (accounting for > 20% of the total rise in both females and males) but also higher lifespan inequality amongst older people. Most of the influence (about 80%) was via moderate cold, but declines in risk at both moderate and extreme heat led to small rises in life expectancy. Our study points to the benefits of adopting risk-reduction strategies that aim, not only at modifying hazards and reducing exposure, but that also address socially-generated vulnerability among older people. This includes ensuring that lifespans lengthen primarily through increases in years lived in good health.
- Organisation(en)
- Institut für Meteorologie und Geophysik, Institut für Demografie
- Externe Organisation(en)
- Instituto de Salud Global Barcelona, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, University of Southern Denmark (SDU), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University of Oxford, Institut national de la santé et de la recherche médiale, Università di Bologna
- Journal
- Environment International
- Band
- 193
- ISSN
- 0160-4120
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2024.109050
- Publikationsdatum
- 11-2024
- Peer-reviewed
- Ja
- ÖFOS 2012
- 504006 Demographie, 303007 Epidemiologie
- Schlagwörter
- Link zum Portal
- https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/de/publications/49492348-2ddb-43cd-b635-11d78cfc9f86