Landslide displacement forecasting using deep learning and monitoring data across selected sites

Autor(en)

Lorenzo Nava, Edoardo Carraro, Cristina Reyes-Carmona, Silvia Puliero, Kushanav Bhuyan, Ascanio Rosi, Oriol Monserrat, Mario Floris, Sansar Raj Meena, Jorge Pedro Galve, Filippo Catani

Abstrakt

Accurate early warning systems for landslides are a reliable risk-reduction strategy that may significantly reduce fatalities and economic losses. Several machine learning methods have been examined for this purpose, underlying deep learning (DL) models’ remarkable prediction capabilities. The long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) algorithms are the sole DL model studied in the extant comparisons. However, several other DL algorithms are suitable for time series forecasting tasks. In this paper, we assess, compare, and describe seven DL methods for forecasting future landslide displacement: multi-layer perception (MLP), LSTM, GRU, 1D convolutional neural network (1D CNN), 2xLSTM, bidirectional LSTM (bi-LSTM), and an architecture composed of 1D CNN and LSTM (Conv-LSTM). The investigation focuses on four landslides with different geographic locations, geological settings, time step dimensions, and measurement instruments. Two landslides are located in an artificial reservoir context, while the displacement of the other two is influenced just by rainfall. The results reveal that the MLP, GRU, and LSTM models can make reliable predictions in all four scenarios, while the Conv-LSTM model outperforms the others in the Baishuihe landslide, where the landslide is highly seasonal. No evident performance differences were found for landslides inside artificial reservoirs rather than outside. Furthermore, the research shows that MLP is better adapted to forecast the highest displacement peaks, while LSTM and GRU are better suited to model lower displacement peaks. We believe the findings of this research will serve as a precious aid when implementing a DL-based landslide early warning system (LEWS).

Organisation(en)

Institut für Geographie und Regionalforschung

Externe Organisation(en)

Università degli Studi di Padova, Universidad de Granada, Centre Tecnològic de Telecomunicacions de Catalunya (CTTC)

Journal

Landslides

Band

20

Seiten

2111-2129

Anzahl der Seiten

19

ISSN

1612-510X

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-023-02104-9

Publikationsdatum

10-2023

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ÖFOS 2012

207206 Ingenieurgeologie

Schlagwörter

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology

Link zum Portal

https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/de/publications/acfd2c2c-dcb4-4d2d-8db4-60728572401a