Probabilistic landslide susceptibility analysis in tropical mountainous terrain using the physically-based r.slope.stability model

Autor(en)

Johnnatan Palacio Cordoba, Martin Mergili, Edier Aristizábal

Abstrakt

Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes, one of the regions of South America most affected by landslides every year. Currently in Colombia, physically based methods for landslide hazard mapping are mandatory for land use planning in urban areas. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r.slope.stability, a spatially distributed, physically based model for landslide susceptibility analysis, available as an open-source tool coupled to GRASS GIS. This model considers alternatively the infinite slope stability model or the 2.5-D geometry of shallow planar and deep-seated landslides with ellipsoidal or truncated failure surfaces. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment. Finally, the model results are evaluated against a landslide inventory using a confusion matrix and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The model performs reasonably well, the infinite slope stability model showing a better performance. The outcomes are, however, rather conservative, pointing to possible challenges with regard to the geotechnical and geo-hydraulic parameterization. The results also highlight the importance to perform probabilistic instead of – or in addition to – deterministic slope stability analyses.

Organisation(en)

Institut für Geographie und Regionalforschung

Externe Organisation(en)

Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Universität für Bodenkultur Wien

Journal

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Band

20

Seiten

815-829

Anzahl der Seiten

15

ISSN

1561-8633

DOI

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020

Publikationsdatum

2020

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ÖFOS 2012

207201 Bodenmechanik, 107007 Risikoforschung, 105404 Geomorphologie, 102009 Computersimulation

Schlagwörter

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Allgemeine Erdkunde und Planetologie

Link zum Portal

https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/de/publications/ec205249-77d3-4d0c-ba01-990bcae63286