Attributing deadly landslide disaster in Southeastern Brazil to human-induced climate change

Author(s): Maria Lucia Ferreira Barbosa, Rafaela Quintella Veiga, Renata Pacheco Quevedo, Débora Joana Dutra, Ana Carolina Moreira Pessôa, Thaís Pereira de Medeiros, Nubia Beray Armond, Chantelle Burton, Yuexiao Liu, Rafael Luiz, Rafael Cesario Abreu, Sihan Li, Fraser C Lott, Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo, Sarah Sparrow, Liana Oighenstein Anderson
Abstract: During February 2022, Petrópolis was hit by a devastating disaster when it rained 252.8 mm in the municipality within three hours leading to 200 lost lives and hundreds more being displaced. Here we aimed to attribute the extreme rainfall event that led to several landslides in Petrópolis, assess how Land Use and Land Cover changes from 1985 to 2021 contributed to the landslides and quantify its socioeconomic impacts. For this we compared natural-only forcing (NAT), and natural and anthropogenic forcing combined (ALL) scenarios of the HadGEM3 ensemble models with observation data. We computed the trends in LULC changes and quantified the landslide’s socioeconomic impacts. Human-induced climate change made this extreme event 45-71% more likely in short and long-term rainfall, respectively. Recurrence period dropped from 2.36 (NAT) to 1.63 (ALL) in the short-term and from 5.66 (NAT) to 3.31 (ALL) in the long-term. Landscape trends show an increase in forest formations, but unprotected hilltops that collapsed have farming as > 40% of its area. The total economic loss was more than USD 22 million with 1078 directly affected people. The study's findings are valuable in understanding how climate change affects extreme weather events. We highlight the need for more research addressing attribution of extreme events, especially those associated with disastrous landslides.
Organisation(s): Department of Geography and Regional Research
External organisation(s): Universidade Federal de São Carlos, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Indiana University Bloomington, CEMADEN, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Met Office, University of Oxford, University of Sheffield
Journal: Weather and Climate Extremes
ISSN: 2212-0947
Publication date: 09-2023
Peer reviewed: Yes
Austrian Fields of Science 2012: 105205 Climate change, 105902 Natural hazards
Sustainable Development Goals: SDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communities, SDG 13 - Climate Action, SDG 15 - Life on Land
Portal url: https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/240e0229-8b8c-420f-a8f2-d34820eedb87

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