Arctic amplification has already peaked
- Author(s)
- Richard Davy, Philipp Griewank
- Abstract
It has been demonstrated that the Arctic has warmed at almost four times the global average rate since 1979, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. However, this rapid Arctic warming is tightly linked to the retreat and thinning of summer sea ice, and so may be expected to weaken as the Arctic transitions to seasonal ice cover. Here we show evidence from gridded observations and climate reanalysis that Arctic amplification peaked sometime in the early 2000s. This occurred concurrently with a maximum in the rate of loss of sea ice area, thickness, and volume. From CMIP6 projections and the CESM2 large ensemble we see that Arctic amplification is unlikely to be so high again at any future point in the 21st century except in the lowest emissions scenarios in which global temperatures stabilize while the Arctic continues to warm.
- Organisation(s)
- Department of Meteorology and Geophysics
- External organisation(s)
- Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
- Journal
- Environmental Research Letters
- Volume
- 18
- No. of pages
- 8
- ISSN
- 1748-9326
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace273
- Publication date
- 08-2023
- Peer reviewed
- Yes
- Austrian Fields of Science 2012
- 105204 Climatology
- Keywords
- ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, General Environmental Science, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
- Sustainable Development Goals
- SDG 13 - Climate Action
- Portal url
- https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/5aa27b68-7fd9-4297-85c7-9950bd0dd318