Post mitigation impact risk analysis for asteroid deflection demonstration missions
- Author(s)
- Siegfried Eggl, Daniel Hestroffer, W. Thuillot, David Bancelin, Juan L. Cano, Filippo Cichocki
- Abstract
Even though mankind believes to have the capabilities to avert potentially disastrous asteroid impacts, only the realization of mitigation demonstration missions can validate this claim. Such a deflection demonstration attempt has to be cost effective, easy to validate, and safe in the sense that harmless asteroids must not be turned into potentially hazardous objects. Uncertainties in an asteroid’s orbital and physical parameters as well as those additionally introduced during a mitigation attempt necessitate an in depth analysis of deflection mission designs in order to dispel planetary safety concerns. We present a post mitigation impact risk analysis of a list of potential kinetic impactor based deflection demonstration missions proposed in the framework of the NEOShield project. Our results confirm that mitigation induced uncertainties have a significant influence on the deflection outcome. Those cannot be neglected in post deflection impact risk studies. We show, furthermore, that deflection missions have to be assessed on an individual basis in order to ensure that asteroids are not inadvertently transported closer to the Earth at a later date. Finally, we present viable targets and mission designs for a kinetic impactor test to be launched between the years 2025 and 2032.
- Organisation(s)
- Department of Astrophysics
- External organisation(s)
- Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 9193, SCALab - Sciences Cognitives et Sciences Affectives, F-59000, Lille, France., DEIMOS Space S.L.U.
- Journal
- Advances in Space Research
- Volume
- 56
- Pages
- 528-548
- No. of pages
- 21
- ISSN
- 0273-1177
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2015.02.030
- Publication date
- 08-2015
- Peer reviewed
- Yes
- Austrian Fields of Science 2012
- 103003 Astronomy, 103004 Astrophysics
- Keywords
- ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Astronomy and Astrophysics, Aerospace Engineering, Geophysics, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Space and Planetary Science, Atmospheric Science
- Portal url
- https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/5d947dc4-d4f8-43bf-a387-4458b776c750