Displacement characteristics and prediction of Baishuihe landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir
- Author(s)
- De-ying Li, Yi-quing Sun, Kun-long Yin, Fa-sheng Miao, Thomas Glade, Chin Leo
- Abstract
In order to reach the designated final water level of 175 m, there were three impoundment stages in the Three Gorges Reservoir, with water levels of 135 m, 156 m and 175 m. Baishuihe landslide in the Reservoir was chosen to analyze its displacement characteristics and displacement variability at the different stages. Based on monitoring data, the landslide displacement was mainly influenced by rainfall and drawdown of the reservoir water level. However, the magnitude of the rise and drawdown of the water level after the reservoir water level reached 175 m did not accelerate landslide displacement. The prediction of landslide displacement for active landslides is very important for landslide risk management. The time series of cumulative displacement was divided into a trend term and a periodic term using the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter method. The polynomial model was used to predict the trend term. The extreme learning machine (ELM) and least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) were chosen to predict the periodic term. In the prediction model for the periodic term, input variables based on the effects of rainfall and reservoir water level in landslide displacement were selected using grey relational analysis. Based on the results, the prediction precision of ELM is better than that of LS-SVM for predicting landslide displacement. The method for predicting landslide displacement could be applied by relevant authorities in making landslide emergency plans in the future.
- Organisation(s)
- Department of Geography and Regional Research
- External organisation(s)
- China University of Geosciences, Western Sydney University
- Journal
- Journal of Mountain Science
- Volume
- 16
- Pages
- 2203–2214
- No. of pages
- 12
- ISSN
- 1672-6316
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-019-5470-3
- Publication date
- 09-2019
- Peer reviewed
- Yes
- Austrian Fields of Science 2012
- 105404 Geomorphology
- Keywords
- ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Geography, Planning and Development, Earth-Surface Processes, Geology, Nature and Landscape Conservation, Global and Planetary Change
- Portal url
- https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/63f40b9a-7922-4fa4-95e7-51445cebf601