Probabilistic landslide susceptibility analysis in tropical mountainous terrain using the physically-based r.slope.stability model
- Author(s)
- Johnnatan Palacio Cordoba, Martin Mergili, Edier Aristizábal
- Abstract
Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes, one of the regions of South America most affected by landslides every year. Currently in Colombia, physically based methods for landslide hazard mapping are mandatory for land use planning in urban areas. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r.slope.stability, a spatially distributed, physically based model for landslide susceptibility analysis, available as an open-source tool coupled to GRASS GIS. This model considers alternatively the infinite slope stability model or the 2.5-D geometry of shallow planar and deep-seated landslides with ellipsoidal or truncated failure surfaces. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment. Finally, the model results are evaluated against a landslide inventory using a confusion matrix and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The model performs reasonably well, the infinite slope stability model showing a better performance. The outcomes are, however, rather conservative, pointing to possible challenges with regard to the geotechnical and geo-hydraulic parameterization. The results also highlight the importance to perform probabilistic instead of – or in addition to – deterministic slope stability analyses.
- Organisation(s)
- Department of Geography and Regional Research
- External organisation(s)
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
- Journal
- Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
- Volume
- 20
- Pages
- 815-829
- No. of pages
- 15
- ISSN
- 1561-8633
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020
- Publication date
- 2020
- Peer reviewed
- Yes
- Austrian Fields of Science 2012
- 207201 Soil mechanics, 107007 Risk research, 105404 Geomorphology, 102009 Computer simulation
- Keywords
- ASJC Scopus subject areas
- General Earth and Planetary Sciences
- Portal url
- https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/ec205249-77d3-4d0c-ba01-990bcae63286